This study focuses on understanding how restored tidal wetlands with different physical configurations function as refuge and rearing habitat for fishes, including native and imperiled species such as delta smelt and juvenile Chinook salmon. This research will assess the spatial distribution of predation risk as it varies within and across tidal wetlands. The proposed research will generate a statistical model that helps predict predation outcomes from various restored tidal wetland designs and channel configurations. This will be a powerful tool for managers to forecast how proposed habitat restoration or water management actions may impact native fish populations.
Pesticide and nutrient inputs from human activities are present in the Sacramenot-San Joaquin Bay-Delta, but the impact of these stressors together on algae is not well known. This research will examine the impacts of herbicides and nutrients on the growth and stress responses of phytoplankton and cyanobacteria present in the San Francisco Estuary. The algae in the delta are diverse with critical ecological effects, ranging from toxin-producing cyanobacteria that form hazardous algal blooms to benthic diatoms and green algae that make up the bulk of the aquatic food web. Contaminants and herbicides can cause changes in algae cellular health which may impact population growth. Understanding algal sub-lethal stress responses will improve our understanding of stressors on the bay-delta food web and bloom formation.
This project aims to improve understanding of atmospheric and hydrologic carbon fluxes in a restored tidal salt marsh in the South San Francisco Bay. I will use soil chambers to measure how much carbon dioxide and methane is taken in and emitted from the marsh. The project will also examine how spatial variability in marsh surface cover impact these exchanges. Shahan will use the data collected in this study to create a biogeochemical model that estimates the carbon budgets of wetlands in the Bay-Delta. A complete carbon budget will illuminate relationships between carbon fluxes and environmental variables. This information can support more informed management of wetlands, as well as allow researchers and decision makers to more effectively plan wetland restoration to be effective in managing carbon fluxes in the face of possible impacts due to climate change.
The goal of this research is to better understand how climate change will affect fishes with different life histories and habitat associations across the San Francisco Estuary. Existing datasets will be incorporated in synthetic analyses and cutting-edge statistical models to identify fish community responses to climate, flows, and habitats along the estuarine salinity gradient. This synthesis-science project will use rich long-term datasets that have been collected by Bay-Delta researchers for decades that will then be analyzed in a reproducible and open science framework. It will also support efforts by the Interagency Ecological Program’s Climate Change Project Work Team.
This project aims to characterize and quantify where detrital material (decaying plant matter) originates within wetlands, the composition of that material, and how export of detrital particles occurs. This project will combine powerful characterization tools and techniques that scale from molecules to ecosystems to assess spatial and temporal trends in particle sources, species and composition. Because restoration in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta will fundamentally alter particle distribution and food availability for aquatic organisms, this study will inform habitat restoration efforts and the revival of native fish populations. The tools developed and adapted for this project may inform management response during extreme conditions and climate events by helping to identify areas that may act as refugia for species.
This study will investigate fish swim performance in response to temperature, using salmon and two of its known predators: largemouth bass and Sacramento pikeminnow. The researcher will assess swim performance metrics and predation risk inside and outside the ideal thermal range of each species to determine if a temperature advantage predicts salmon survival in predation scenarios. This project’s results will provide a mechanistic understanding of how temperature stress may influence mortality risk of juvenile Chinook salmon through predation, which will offer a more holistic perspective on the management of this species
This project work will model the risk of pesticide pollution in 225 sub-catchments of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay-Delta. The model will account for water management practices, land use, pesticide use rates, and cumulative pesticide stress. Additionally, this work will produce a web-based tool to simulate current and future risks based on the ranking of primary sources of pesticide contribution. This work will provide a framework to predict risk from chemical stressors. Specific objectives are: (1) enhanced pro-active chemical risk assessment, (2) creation of a tool which enables science-based chemical use decisions, (3) improved risk screening for vulnerable areas, and (4) identification of adverse effects of current and future chemical use strategies.
This project focuses on nitrogen and carbon cycling within the Bay-Delta, both before and after planned 2021 upgrades to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (SRWTP). We will measure in situ benthic nitrate (NO3- ) and oxygen (O2) fluxes using a new non-invasive technique, which provides high frequency continuous data over a much larger sediment surface area than traditional methods. The SRTWP currently represents one of the largest point sources of nitrogen to the Bay-Delta, with the upgrades projected to cut nitrogen outputs from the plant by ~65%. This project will help assess the efficacy of this major management action and our results will add to biogeochemical models for the Bay-Delta.
The Delta is a critical area for sustainable water management, facing significant challenges due to climate change. One of these challenges is in understanding and mitigating maladaptation – climate-aligned actions that may increase vulnerabilities or reduce adaptive capacity. Given the uncertainties surrounding climate change, management actions that seek to achieve high-level goals of climate change adaptation while accounting for maladaptation must be robust, ensuring adequate, multicriteria performance across all climate futures. This work responds to two gaps: (1) the absence of tools for assessing the performance of management actions in the Delta under hydroclimatic uncertainty and (2) a lack of research that explores how stakeholders can account for maladaptation in water governance. Among Delta stakeholders and researchers alike, the discourse and science surrounding ecological flow guidelines, the social complexities of water governance, and the use of integrated climate models to inform robust and adaptive decisions is active and rapidly advancing. This positions the Delta not only as an ideal case study for the academic study of maladaptation, but also as one that is of immediate relevance to stakeholders, responding to several Delta Management Needs (Science Actions 3B, 6E, and 1A) as they concern open science and the exploration of the Delta as a socioecological system and the facilitation of decision-making under climate change and its associated uncertainties.
Bridging Science and Community: Engaging Youth in Delta Conservation through the Spinning Salmon Program is designed to enhance scientific understanding and engagement among underrepresented youth in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Leveraging the Youth-Focused Community and Citizen Science (YCCS) framework, the program connects youth to local ecosystems while addressing ecological challenges such as the Thiamine Deficiency Complex affecting Central Valley Chinook Salmon. The objectives focus on enhancing students' understanding of scientific concepts and processes, fostering science identity, self-efficacy, and environmental science agency, and cultivating a sense of environmental stewardship. Additionally, the program emphasizes the active involvement of community members in co-creating and refining educational strategies, ensuring these approaches are tailored to the diverse cultural and educational needs of the Delta community. This aligns with Science Action C under Management Need 4 in the 2022-2026 Science Action Agenda (SAA), contributing to a broader understanding of community-engaged research methodologies.
The proposed project is driven by the need to understand how land use has changed historically in California's Central Valley due to various drivers including environmental changes and socio-economic developments. Given the region's dependency on agriculture and its vulnerability to climate change—marked by shifts in precipitation patterns and water availability—it's crucial to model these dynamics accurately to forecast future conditions and plan effectively. Using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) provides a sophisticated means to dissect past interactions between land use and environmental factors at a granular level. This historical understanding is pivotal as it sets the stage for projecting future scenarios. Additionally, the integration of future hydrology data generated from the CalSim3 model and socio-economic scenarios allows for a comprehensive analysis of potential future states. This analysis aims to explore strategic land use modifications that can meet future socio-economic goals under varying water availability scenarios.
This research supports several key science actions, making it highly relevant to current policy discussions. It provides actionable insights into large-scale experiments (Science Action 1C), assesses the impact of climate on ecosystems (Science Action 6A), and explores water allocation strategies (Science Action 6E), thereby equipping policymakers and stakeholders with the necessary tools for informed decision-making. These decisions are crucial for maintaining ecological flows and ensuring the longterm viability of both the agricultural sector and the natural ecosystems upon which they depend.
Due to pervasive anthropogenic influences (e.g., habitat alteration, climate change), current rates of biodiversity loss in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta are unprecedented. Application of appropriate management regimes and mitigation measures thus require effective biological monitoring to adaptively manage systems. Non-invasive environmental DNA (eDNA)-based tools for endangered species monitoring have gained attention as a complementary approach to traditional sampling because of their increased sensitivity and accurate quantification. However, the unique characteristics of environmental RNA (eRNA) make it a novel tool, allowing us to gain additional information that is not possible to obtain with eDNA. Using novel eRNA tools to improve detection and quantify health status of Smelt has only been theorized and remains to be empirically tested. Both Delta and Longfin Smelt species were historically ubiquitous in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, but have declined precipitously over the past several decades. One source of mortality is entrainment into the south Delta water export pumps. Although the entrainment of juvenile and adult smelt has been regularly monitored at fish salvage facilities, entrainment of larval smelt (< 20 mm) is not quantified, thus remains largely unknown. Moreover, given the current climate change effect (e.g., increased heat stress), an understanding of how these endangered species will respond to acute stress response in the wild is lacking.
The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is a highly altered and impaired ecosystem that is critical to the freshwater infrastructure of the State of California. Salt intrusion from San Francisco Bay into the Delta, however, threatens freshwater delivery to the southern portions of the state and so management and restoration actions within the Bay-Delta must continuously balance both ecosystem and operational needs. While previous numerical modeling studies have sought to examine changes in the estuarine physics of the system, these tools are costly to develop and run. Thus there is a need to develop alternate methods for monitoring the movement of water through the Bay-Delta, as proposed here. The proposed research project approaches tracking the mixing between the Bay and Delta waters through the novel use of daily satellite color imagery. These findings will be linked to in situ measurements throughout the system and used to inform relevant agencies of flow characteristics within the waterways. This work is motivated by a need for high frequency monitoring of finescale features within the dynamic Bay-Delta ecosystem and to take advantage of new advanced remote sensing technology to inform on long-term trends within the Delta.
The primary objectives of this research are to: 1. Enhance monitoring programs to inform management in the presence of climate change and additional stressors, 2. Inform on ecosystem resilience to interannual hydrologic variations and climate change impacts, and 3. Evaluate how climate change and flow regime changes will impact water quality in the Delta.
The San Francisco Estuary (SFE) supports the southernmost reproductive population of longfin smelt (LFS) along the Pacific Coast. Long term monitoring studies have observed a precipitous decline of LFS in the SFE over the past several decades, and the San Francisco Bay-Delta Distinct Population Segment was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in July of 2024. There are important gaps in our understanding of LFS ecology and movement within the highly urbanized SFE, posing challenges to the development of effective recovery strategies. More complete information about the movement and migration of LFS in the wild can lead to improved life-cycle modeling and provide insight into the species’ relationship with temperature, salinity and other habitat features of the SFE. An effective tool to learn about fish migration and movement is through a tracking method known as acoustic telemetry. Until recently this practice has been impossible on small fish such as LFS due to their body size relative to existing acoustic transmitters, or ‘tags’. With recent advances in telemetry technology, we now have an opportunity to implant newly miniaturized acoustic transmitters into adult LFS. However, before the results of telemetry studies utilizing these newly developed transmitters can be used to make inferences about wild populations, it is imperative to determine whether the tagged individuals are surviving and behaving in the same way as their un-tagged counterparts. The study aims to establish post-tagging survival and transmitter retention rates of wild and captive-reared LFS surgically implanted with newly miniaturizes acoustic transmitters, as well as the sublethal effects of transmitter implantation on LFS swimming performance. The results of this study will directly inform the implementation of acoustic telemetry on LFS, aiding in the conservation and recovery of an imperiled native species.
Invasive aquatic vegetation (IAV) is widespread in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and its change in coverage has been mapped at the species level using spectroscopy data collected once a year, from 2004 to 2008 and from 2014 to 2019. There was no funding to conduct a similar mapping campaign in 2020. This work aims to collect and analyze imagery in summer of 2020 to fulfill two main objectives. First is to inform the monitoring framework for aquatic vegetation put forth for the Interagency Ecological Program (IEP). Comparing spring and fall imagery of 2019 and the summer imagery of 2020, the project will evaluate which time period is ideal for optimal mapping of aquatic vegetation considering the logistical challenges of airborne imagery acquisition and the phenology of the species being mapped. The project will also contrast the pros and cons of the 3 proposed scenarios in the IEP monitoring framework: 1) two hyperspectral acquisitions a year (2019; “best case” scenario), 2) one acquisition a year (2020, “moderate” scenario) and 3) satellite data based monitoring (the Sentinel-2 study, “bare bones” scenario). The second objective of the project is to determine if the new treatment framework (new herbicide formulations and application schedules) is effective in controlling the old (Brazilian waterweed, water hyacinth) and newly added target weed species (water primrose, alligator weed) in the Delta ecosystem.
On-going subsidence of organic soils threatens the physical structure of the Delta, its central role in the state’s water system, many diverse species that depend on it, and threatens future agricultural production. Knowledge of baseline emissions and subsidence rates is important for developing alternative land use scenarios for maximizing benefits for sequestering carbon, reducing or reversing subsidence, providing income for landowners via the carbon market, and reducing flood risk. This project will gather, process, and analyze recent data in the Delta for land-surface elevation changes, greenhouse gas fluxes measured by eddy covariance and gas chambers, soil organic matter content, depth-to-groundwater, and soil organic thickness. These data will be used to update and calibrate the SUBCALC model and refine model inputs to improve the model’s ability to simulate subsidence and CO2 emissions. Collaboration with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Berkeley will allow use of CO2 flux and InSAR data to calibrate and validate the SUBCALC model. The Delta Conservancy is another partner assisting with assessment of modeling for land-use conversion planning. TNC and Metropolitan Water District are partners to assist with use of SUBCALC for engagement of the carbon market and collaborate with the Suisun RCD to improve estimates of subsidence and CO2 emissions.
Little is known about sturgeon mortality sources outside management of the White Sturgeon recreational fishery. Mortality has been observed throughout the SFBDE with increased reporting over the past several years. Much of which is concentrated (but not exclusively) in the Carquinez Strait; a narrow strait linking known sturgeon feeding grounds and vital corridor which all SFBDE sturgeon must pass to access spawning grounds. Adult sturgeon populations in the SFBDE are difficult to estimate in part due to unknown rates of mortality, outside the recreational fishery. Specific, non-angling mortality data and sources are needed to develop management strategies that that lead to robust abundance estimates ensuring persistence of these public resources. This project aims to dentify and enumerate non-fisheries sturgeon mortality in the San Francisco Bay Delta Estuary (SFBDE), specifically the Carquinez Strait. We plan to determine population characteristics of observed mortality, age structure and migration patterns/habitat use of collected sturgeon. We will also engage the local community through outreach efforts to investigate the public perception of sturgeon mortality in SFBDE and increase participation in our study.
The Sacramento River and its tributaries serve as critical habitat for the green sturgeon, listed as federally threatened due to its declining population and the impacts of anthropogenic activities such as dam operations and water extraction. We currently lack an understanding of the relationship between flow regimes and sturgeon migration, which is essential for developing effective management strategies to support the species' conservation and for required analysis under state and federal law. By modeling this relationship, this project will contribute to more informed water management, leading to fewer litigation risks for agencies and better outcomes for sturgeon.
This project will model the effects of flow regimes on adult Southern Distinct Population Segment (sDPS) green sturgeon migration within the Sacramento River basin to enhance sturgeon conservation and water management. Specifically, the research will model how flows and temperature affect adult green sturgeon spawning migration. The model will be used to forecast sturgeon movements under various flow scenarios, and the model, the results, and an explanation of their significance will be widely distributed via a website (with a publicly accessible modeling app), a policy brief, a public workshop, and other outreach.
The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) is experiencing an increase in the frequency and severity of Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (CHABs), which can produce harmful cyanotoxins. This issue is likely to intensify due to climate changes and rising temperatures. The most common CHAB genus in the Delta is Microcystis. Currently, the most extensive dataset for tracking Delta CHABs is the Microcystis Visual Index (MVI), a qualitative assessment of Microcystis colony densities observed in surface water. This index, recorded by natural agency staff across numerous monitoring stations, provides broad spatial coverage but is inherently subjective and not quantitative, thereby limiting its utility.
This project has the following objectives: 1. Develop an MVI image classification model and model algorithm that can identify and quantify Microcystis aggregate presence and coverage level in digital photos. 2. Translate MVI rankings to Microcystis biomass ranges by obtaining data to ground-truth a range of Microcystis biomass that corresponds with MVI rankings 2 through 5. 3. Explore relationship between proportion of toxic Microcystis cells and Microcystis biomass levels by relating each MVI scale (for ranks 2 through 5) and Microcystis biomass range to a) proportion of toxic Microcystis cells (i.e. ratio of mcyE and 16S rDNA genes) and b) microcystin concentration, in surface grab samples.
Assessing the success of tidal marsh restoration is a top priority for coastal managers across the US. Estuarine habitat restoration has been prioritized due to the importance of the ecosystem functions (Callaway et al. 2012) and services (Costanza et al. 2014) they provide and the threats to them by climate driven sea-level rise (hereafter SLR; Craft et al. 2009, Donnelly & Bertness 2001, Schile et al. 2014) and other stressors (Mariotti & Fagharazzi 2013). Given the importance of management for estuarine habitats to survive SLR (Kirwan & Megonigal 2013) and the importance of public responses to approve and fund restoration projects, it is critical to understand how to broadly assess the success of restoration from the perspectives of both ecological performance and public perceptions. However, the San Francisco Estuary (SF Estuary), stretching from the Lower San Francisco Bay through Suisun Marsh to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, encapsulates diverse social and environmental dynamics (Moyle et al. 2014) and varying perceptions by sociodemographic group (Rudnick et al 2022). Our project is focused on the Suisun Marsh and Delta and seeks to understand these complexities by integrating social, environmental, and management perspectives.
The Eco-Cultural Renewal of Delta Tule Landscapes project is a collaboration between the San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) and two Delta area Tribes: the Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians (SSBMI) and the Colfax Todds Valley Consolidated Tribe (CTVCT). This project's goals are to communicate the central importance of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) in creating and maintaining resilient Delta landscapes and to advance the integration of TEK into Delta science, management strategies, and policies in a way that supports the ecological and cultural value of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, a region of profound ecological and cultural significance. TEK is the evolving knowledge acquired by indigenous peoples over hundreds or thousands of years through direct contact with the environment. In the Delta, Tribes used TEK to tend wetlands and foster abundant populations of the plants and animals they harvested. This project aims to elevate TEK in the Delta as an essential tool to restore and build the resilience of species, habitats, and ecosystem processes that have been devastated since European
Decisions over how water is allocated consider a limited range of climate and operational scenarios, privilege Western knowledge, and are generally inaccessible to the public, including communities most affected by water decision-making. We will follow a participatory and iterative co-production process to understand and integrate the diverse values and uses of Delta waterways and floodplains in an accessible knowledge platform designed to promote public engagement, learning, and equitable stewardship.
The overarching goal of the proposed project is to build and integrate knowledge of the social-ecological uses of Delta waterways and floodplains to inform equitable solutions to Delta management challenges. Specific objectives are to (1) understand the diverse public beneficial uses Delta waterways and floodplains; (2) incorporate functional flows and riparian floodplain processes in Delta water operations models; (3) share diverse community knowledge through a web-based platform; and (4) critically evaluate our collaborative research approach to assess its efficacy in building trust, enhancing public engagement, and guiding equitable stewardship actions.
As source areas of snowmelt, Sierra Nevada headwater streams are the origin of water that feeds the Delta, but their response to climate change is not well understood. By utilizing long-term data and modeling future responses, we build a tool to reduce scientific uncertainty about Delta water supply and water quality in a changing climate. By incorporating indigenous cultural values, we create a fully integrated shared vison of the future of the Delta in a changing climate, including mapping which areas are most vulnerable and in need of conservation or restoration.
The project objectives are: 1. Utilize and expand on existing water quality and biological monitoring networks in Sierra Nevada headwaters streams to construct models of ecosystem dynamics with respect to climate induced stress impacts on benthic communities, water quality, and nutrients. 2. Construct an oral-history-derived framework of indigenous cultural values of Delta headwaters systems and how science and indigenous values can interact to improve management outcomes. 3. Utilize and expand on existing platforms for dissemination of forecasting tools and model outputs to water managers as well as both scientific and non-scientific communities in the Delta headwaters.
