The goal of this research was to better understand how climate change will affect fishes with different life histories and habitat associations across the San Francisco Estuary. Existing datasets were incorporated in synthetic analyses and cutting-edge statistical models to identify fish community responses to climate, flows, and habitats along the estuarine salinity gradient. This synthesis-science project used rich long-term datasets that have been collected by Bay-Delta researchers for decades in a reproducible and open science framework.
The team investigated how freshwater flow and sea surface temperature impacted juvenile fish species in the lower and upper estuaries and found differing tolerances. Additionally, they looked at both the biological and spatial structures within the communities and concluded preserving diversity is key to stabilizing juvenile fish recruitment in response to changing environmental conditions. Even in highly dynamic environments such as estuaries, climate change will likely result in winners and losers among species. With an increase in the frequency and duration of drought and marine heatwaves, estuaries may become less hospitable to species that are environmental specialists, such as freshwater or cool water dependent species. This may lead to lower recruitment success. Ultimately, climate change may negatively affect species persistence, food web dynamics and ecosystem function.
The Environmental Monitoring Program (EMP) began in 1975 to conduct baseline and compliance monitoring of water quality, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and benthic invertebrates in the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. This monitoring program was designed to track the impact of water diversions to the State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) on the Bay-Delta. In the decades since, EMP scientists have monitored these constituents at fixed and floating stations throughout the estuary and ensured compliance with state and federal mandates such as Water Right Decision 1641 (D-1641). In the years and decades since its inception, EMP has become one of the cornerstones for scientists' and managers' understanding of the pace and pattern of change in this critical ecosystem. By sampling water quality and biological communities concurrently, EMP has created a dataset that is uniquely useful in better understanding causal connections between physical, biological, and biogeochemical processes.
The Delta Juvenile Fish Monitoring Program (DJFMP) has monitored natural-origin and hatchery-origin juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and other fish species within the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) since 1976 using a combination of midwater trawls and beach seines. Since 2000, three trawl sites and at least 58 beach seine sites have been sampled weekly or biweekly within the SFE and lower Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. The main objectives of the DJFMP are: 1. Document the long-term abundance and distribution of juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Delta. 2. Comprehensively monitor throughout the year to document the presence of all races of juvenile Chinook Salmon. 3. Intensively monitor juvenile Chinook salmon during the fall and winter months for use in managing water project operations (Delta Cross Channel gates and water export levels) on a real-time basis. 4. Document the abundance and distribution of Steelhead. 5. Document the abundance and distribution of non-salmonid species.
The Wetland Regional Monitoring Program (WRMP) Fish and Fish Habitat Monitoring project is a collaborative effort to track biological responses to tidal wetland restoration in the San Francisco Estuary. Monthly sampling is conducted across a network of benchmark, reference, and project restoration sites in the South Bay and North Bay, with the goal of evaluating how wetland restoration influences fish assemblages, habitat use, and ecological condition.
The study uses primarily otter trawls to monitor fish and macroinvertebrate communities. Standardized field methods align with those used in long-term monitoring programs to ensure comparability and data integration across regions. Environmental data, including water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen, are collected in tandem with biological sampling to assess habitat quality and seasonal dynamics.
The program addresses WRMP Guiding Question #4: How do policies, programs, and projects to protect and restore tidal marshes affect the distribution, abundance, and health of fish and wildlife? The data support adaptive management, regulatory compliance, and science-based restoration planning by identifying key habitats, tracking restoration performance, and detecting regional patterns in species composition and abundance over time.
Invasive aquatic macrophytes (aquatic weeds) cover increased dramatically in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) during the 2013-2015 drought and the 2021-2023 drought. This trend toward increasing dominance of these invasive aquatic weeds has profound implications for delta/marsh habitat, as aquatic weeds are known to significantly alter the physical environment by slowing water velocities, increasing water clarity, providing habitat for invasive fishes, and reducing open water habitat. These habitat effects are thought to negatively impact the endangered Delta Smelt and other pelagic species that rely on turbid, open water habitat. During the drought of 2021- 2023, aquatic weeds have continued to spread into new habitats, therefore there is an urgent need to identify effective control measures, which requires increased understanding of ecosystem responses to drought and associated environmental conditions in the waterways (e.g., water temperature, flow rates, turbidity, etc.), and specific control measures.
The work covered in this contract includes the 2021-2023 Emergency Drought Salinity Barrier Monitoring Plan mandated under DWR’s Incidental Take Permit. Research has focused on understanding invasion patterns in Franks Tract and contrasting them with patterns in channels surrounding Liberty Island and restoration sites. We also analyze Suisun marsh to assess the condition near the salinity drought barrier on Montezuma Slough, and its impacts across the length of Montezuma Slough and relate observed patterns to salinity conditions in Suisun Slough.
Extensive field work has been conducted throughout the Delta and in Suisun Marsh to acquire data that is used to train and evaluate remotely sensed maps of aquatic weed distribution and link these to measurements of water quality. This project extends the time period of continued mapping of aquatic vegetation in the Delta through summer of 2027, for a time series that goes back to 2004, covering 19 years of high spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery data. This dataset now encompasses the full range of hydrologic conditions that extend from wet years to extremely dry years which can potentially form the basis for interpreting causal relationships and changes in trait distributions of aquatic weeds. Aquatic weed mapping combined with an extensive field campaign within the Suisun Marsh extends the Suisun time series to seven years. This growing time series of vegetation maps for both the Delta and Suisun Marsh can be leveraged to look at the evolution of tidal wetland restoration sites developed by DWR’s Fish Restoration Program (FRP) as part of the Incidental Take Permit. This analysis covers construction to current time period to see if different restoration strategies (pre-planting, no pre-action, treating invasive species outside the site, etc.) have an impact on the growth and maturity of a site, invasibility, etc. Additionally, the full time series will be evaluated for trends related to weather/climate, water conditions, and management actions.
