The goal of this research is to better understand how climate change will affect fishes with different life histories and habitat associations across the San Francisco Estuary. Existing datasets will be incorporated in synthetic analyses and cutting-edge statistical models to identify fish community responses to climate, flows, and habitats along the estuarine salinity gradient. This synthesis-science project will use rich long-term datasets that have been collected by Bay-Delta researchers for decades that will then be analyzed in a reproducible and open science framework. It will also support efforts by the Interagency Ecological Program’s Climate Change Project Work Team.
The Environmental Monitoring Program (EMP) began in 1975 to conduct baseline and compliance monitoring of water quality, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and benthic invertebrates in the San Francisco Bay-Delta estuary. This monitoring program was designed to track the impact of water diversions to the State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) on the Bay-Delta. In the decades since, EMP scientists have monitored these constituents at fixed and floating stations throughout the estuary and ensured compliance with state and federal mandates such as Water Right Decision 1641 (D-1641). In the years and decades since its inception, EMP has become one of the cornerstones for scientists' and managers' understanding of the pace and pattern of change in this critical ecosystem. By sampling water quality and biological communities concurrently, EMP has created a dataset that is uniquely useful in better understanding causal connections between physical, biological, and biogeochemical processes.
To support management planning in Suisun Marsh, this project is developing a body of science and tools to understand past, present, and potential future changes to the Marsh’s ecological patterns, processes, and functions. This project builds on SFEI’s prior work in the Delta, extending historical ecology mapping, landscape change studies, and the Landscape Scenario Planning Tool to cover Suisun's historical and present-day landscapes. Through spatially explicit representations of the historical function and condition of the marsh and analyses of landscape metrics, this project is evaluating changes over time in landscape support for ecosystem functions and services in Suisun. In order to incorporate diverse perspectives into planning resources, project activities include engagement with local tribes and community members to understand community interests, priorities, and uses of the Marsh. Findings will be shared through a report and article for both technical and general audiences, and spatial analyses and data layers will be made available through the Landscape Scenario Planning Tool.