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  • Title

    Predation Dynamics Across Reach-Specific Gradients in Juvenile Salmon Survival

    Lead U.S. Geological Survey [USGS]
    Description

    Description The overarching goal of this project is to determine if predation by piscivorous fishes is an important explanatory driver of survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon emigrating through the north Delta. To achieve this goal, we seek to determine if variation in reach-specific characteristics of predation dynamics covary with survival of acoustictagged juvenile Chinook Salmon collected during the study period. This will be accomplished by comparing reach-specific characteristics of the piscivore community and its observed and modeled consumption of juvenile Chinook Salmon across a range of environmental conditions. Need This is not a mandated study but it addresses an important research need. Objectives: How does the piscivore community (species composition, size structure, and abundance) vary across specific migratory pathways (river reaches) in the North Delta? To what extent do environmental conditions (e.g., water temperature, turbidity, and discharge) control the consumption of juvenile Chinook Salmon? Do characteristics of the predator community explain variation in survival of acoustic tagged salmon collected during the study period?
    Science topics Predation
    Updated November 12, 2025
  • Title

    From Microbes to Zooplankton, What Defines a Beneficial Wetland?

    Lead San Francisco State University, Estuary & Ocean Science Center
    Description Our study will characterize species diversity at multiple levels of biological organization in the water column of restoring wetlands in the upper San Francisco Estuary and Delta (SFE), from bacteria to fishes. In doing so, we will also describe the foodweb benefits being provided to larval fishes, including longfin smelt, through additional dietary DNA analysis. We will use the species diversity we find in the water column to identify a subset of biota that are indicative of the conditions present in wetlands in different stages of restoration (early, intermediate, and mature) and identify connections between those indicators to the foodweb resources being provided to higher trophic levels. We will study 3-4 wetlands in each of 3 stages: early (unvegetated), intermediate (partially vegetated and partially channelized), and mature (fully vegetated and channelized) wetlands.
    Science topics Crustaceans, Cyanobacteria, Estuaries, Fish, Food webs, Habitat, Habitat restoration, Insects, Invertebrates, Longfin Smelt, Other species, Other zooplankton, Pelagic fish, Phytoplankton, Predation, Restoration, Salinity, Saltwater and freshwater marshes, Tidal wetlands, Wetlands, Zooplankton
    Updated January 31, 2024
  • Title

    Standard Operating Procedure for Diagnosing and Addressing Predator Detections in Salmon Telemetry Data

    Lead University of Washington [UW]
    Description Tag predation is a complicating factor in juvenile salmon telemetry studies that can bias results, delay timely reporting, and prevent effective data synthesis. This project addresses the problem by (1) characterizing predatory fish movement patterns from existing telemetry data in the Delta; (2) developing a standard operating procedure for diagnosing and handling detections of predated tags in salmon telemetry studies; and (3) implementing the recommendations in a software package in Program R that includes code, a “library” of expected predator behaviors, and example vignettes. The R package will be freely available for download at www.cbr.washington.edu.
    Science topics Chinook Salmon, Endangered species, Fish, Intertidal and transition zones, Invasive and non native species, Predation, Salmon migration, Steelhead Trout, Striped bass
    Updated April 30, 2025
  • Title

    Impacts of predation and habitat on Central Valley Chinook smolt survival

    Lead University of Vermont, USGS Vermont Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
    Description The Sacramento River in California’s Central Valley has been highly modified over the past 150 years due to mining, urbanization, and impoundment/diversion of river flow to provide water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural needs. Land use changes combined with high levels of harvest have been accompanied by drastic declines in native salmon populations, including the once abundant Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Further, the region has been subject to the introduction and widespread establishment of non-native fish species, some of which are predators of juvenile salmon. Of the four historic ecotypes of Chinook salmon (fall, late-fall, winter, and spring runs), winter- and spring-runs have been most impacted and are currently listed as endangered and threatened respectively under the US Endangered Species act. Past research has illustrated how smoltification of juvenile salmon and outmigration from freshwater to the ocean is a time of increased mortality, and reduced survival at this life stage can impact the number of reproducing adults returning to the system in subsequent years. While these studies have provided valuable information on how habitat and environmental conditions experienced by migrating Chinook salmon smolts can affect survival, they have primarily focused on individual ecotypes during the portion of the year where downstream migrations occur. However, variation in smolt size and migration timing among ecotypes can expose migrating fish to differing environmental conditions and levels of exposure to predation, which can present distinct risks for outmigration survival. To identify the areas and environmental conditions which have the greatest relative impact on juvenile survival for each ecotype, this project will use over ten years of data (2012-2022) from acoustically tagged smolts representing all four Chinook salmon ecotypes in the Sacramento River/Central Valley. Combining these data will increase sample size relative to previous studies, the range of environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, flow, and predator abundance) modeled, the range of fish sizes, and thus, the statistical power of our analyses. We hypothesize that each ecotype will have different factors that will be the primary drivers of mortality experienced during outmigration. To test our hypotheses, we will implement Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) mark-recapture models to estimate both the probability of survival through reaches of the Sacramento River delineated by acoustic receivers, and the detection probability in each reach. Survival will be modeled as a function of individual, release group, reach-specific, and time-varying covariates. Further, to examine the relative impact of predation on smolt survival, we will include an additional covariate representing predator-prey encounter rates using the Mean Free-path Length model. Finally, model selection will be applied to a series of CJS models to assess the relative impact of each covariate on smolt survival for each of the four Chinook ecotypes.
    Science topics Chinook Salmon, Environmental drivers, Fish, Flows, Habitat, Predation, Salmon migration, Water temperature
    Updated February 2, 2024