The goal of this research was to better understand how climate change will affect fishes with different life histories and habitat associations across the San Francisco Estuary. Existing datasets were incorporated in synthetic analyses and cutting-edge statistical models to identify fish community responses to climate, flows, and habitats along the estuarine salinity gradient. This synthesis-science project used rich long-term datasets that have been collected by Bay-Delta researchers for decades in a reproducible and open science framework.
The team investigated how freshwater flow and sea surface temperature impacted juvenile fish species in the lower and upper estuaries and found differing tolerances. Additionally, they looked at both the biological and spatial structures within the communities and concluded preserving diversity is key to stabilizing juvenile fish recruitment in response to changing environmental conditions. Even in highly dynamic environments such as estuaries, climate change will likely result in winners and losers among species. With an increase in the frequency and duration of drought and marine heatwaves, estuaries may become less hospitable to species that are environmental specialists, such as freshwater or cool water dependent species. This may lead to lower recruitment success. Ultimately, climate change may negatively affect species persistence, food web dynamics and ecosystem function.
Decisions over how water is allocated consider a limited range of climate and operational scenarios, privilege Western knowledge, and are generally inaccessible to the public, including communities most affected by water decision-making. We will follow a participatory and iterative co-production process to understand and integrate the diverse values and uses of Delta waterways and floodplains in an accessible knowledge platform designed to promote public engagement, learning, and equitable stewardship.
The overarching goal of the proposed project is to build and integrate knowledge of the social-ecological uses of Delta waterways and floodplains to inform equitable solutions to Delta management challenges. Specific objectives are to (1) understand the diverse public beneficial uses Delta waterways and floodplains; (2) incorporate functional flows and riparian floodplain processes in Delta water operations models; (3) share diverse community knowledge through a web-based platform; and (4) critically evaluate our collaborative research approach to assess its efficacy in building trust, enhancing public engagement, and guiding equitable stewardship actions.
