A demonstration project to define possible future land use scenarios for Staten island ("visions") and leverage existing tools/resources to analyze and compare these scenarios.
The proposed project is driven by the need to understand how land use has changed historically in California's Central Valley due to various drivers including environmental changes and socio-economic developments. Given the region's dependency on agriculture and its vulnerability to climate change—marked by shifts in precipitation patterns and water availability—it's crucial to model these dynamics accurately to forecast future conditions and plan effectively. Using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) provides a sophisticated means to dissect past interactions between land use and environmental factors at a granular level. This historical understanding is pivotal as it sets the stage for projecting future scenarios. Additionally, the integration of future hydrology data generated from the CalSim3 model and socio-economic scenarios allows for a comprehensive analysis of potential future states. This analysis aims to explore strategic land use modifications that can meet future socio-economic goals under varying water availability scenarios.
This research supports several key science actions, making it highly relevant to current policy discussions. It provides actionable insights into large-scale experiments (Science Action 1C), assesses the impact of climate on ecosystems (Science Action 6A), and explores water allocation strategies (Science Action 6E), thereby equipping policymakers and stakeholders with the necessary tools for informed decision-making. These decisions are crucial for maintaining ecological flows and ensuring the longterm viability of both the agricultural sector and the natural ecosystems upon which they depend.
Invasive aquatic vegetation (IAV) is widespread in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and its change in coverage has been mapped at the species level using spectroscopy data collected once a year, from 2004 to 2008 and from 2014 to 2019. There was no funding to conduct a similar mapping campaign in 2020. This work aims to collect and analyze imagery in summer of 2020 to fulfill two main objectives. First is to inform the monitoring framework for aquatic vegetation put forth for the Interagency Ecological Program (IEP). Comparing spring and fall imagery of 2019 and the summer imagery of 2020, the project will evaluate which time period is ideal for optimal mapping of aquatic vegetation considering the logistical challenges of airborne imagery acquisition and the phenology of the species being mapped. The project will also contrast the pros and cons of the 3 proposed scenarios in the IEP monitoring framework: 1) two hyperspectral acquisitions a year (2019; “best case” scenario), 2) one acquisition a year (2020, “moderate” scenario) and 3) satellite data based monitoring (the Sentinel-2 study, “bare bones” scenario). The second objective of the project is to determine if the new treatment framework (new herbicide formulations and application schedules) is effective in controlling the old (Brazilian waterweed, water hyacinth) and newly added target weed species (water primrose, alligator weed) in the Delta ecosystem.
Invasive submerged aquatic species (SAV) greatly impact habitat for endangered species in the Delta. In the past decade, we have seen a huge increase in SAV cover and an influx of new invasive species like ribbonweed. This study will build species distribution models (SDM) for SAV using predictors such as water speed, depth, salinity from the UnTRIM hydrodynamic model, turbidity derived from Sentinel-2 and temperature derived from ECOSTRESS satellite imagery. The SDMs will be used to study the effect of flow management actions and restoration activities on SAV distribution. SAV community data collected in the field (available on EDI) will be analyzed to study if the SAV community composition has changed from 2007-08 to present time. The same dataset will be used to explore if the SAV SDM can be refined based on species presence data to see if there are significant differences in SDMs of individual SAV species.
Invasive aquatic vegetation has been identified as a major concern in the IEP Science Strategy document and a topic meriting more study. Assessing the effects of flow alteration management actions on the Delta is also a recommended key topic of research. This study furthers both these objectives. It complements ongoing projects such as the water primrose ecoengineering project (PEN #348), which is similarly building an SDM for Ludwigia spp., determining plant characteristics that enable Ludwigia invasion and mapping invasion risk for the remnant Delta marshes. The work also builds off the conclusions of the Sentinel project which mapped the temporal phenological signal of SAV in the Delta. The results of this study will help design restorations to be more resistant to invasion, plan for climate change impacts, and predict invasion risk in Delta regions that are being reconnected tidally to the Delta waterways network through current and future restoration projects.
