The Delta is a critical area for sustainable water management, facing significant challenges due to climate change. One of these challenges is in understanding and mitigating maladaptation – climate-aligned actions that may increase vulnerabilities or reduce adaptive capacity. Given the uncertainties surrounding climate change, management actions that seek to achieve high-level goals of climate change adaptation while accounting for maladaptation must be robust, ensuring adequate, multicriteria performance across all climate futures. This work responds to two gaps: (1) the absence of tools for assessing the performance of management actions in the Delta under hydroclimatic uncertainty and (2) a lack of research that explores how stakeholders can account for maladaptation in water governance. Among Delta stakeholders and researchers alike, the discourse and science surrounding ecological flow guidelines, the social complexities of water governance, and the use of integrated climate models to inform robust and adaptive decisions is active and rapidly advancing. This positions the Delta not only as an ideal case study for the academic study of maladaptation, but also as one that is of immediate relevance to stakeholders, responding to several Delta Management Needs (Science Actions 3B, 6E, and 1A) as they concern open science and the exploration of the Delta as a socioecological system and the facilitation of decision-making under climate change and its associated uncertainties.
The Sacramento River and its tributaries serve as critical habitat for the green sturgeon, listed as federally threatened due to its declining population and the impacts of anthropogenic activities such as dam operations and water extraction. We currently lack an understanding of the relationship between flow regimes and sturgeon migration, which is essential for developing effective management strategies to support the species' conservation and for required analysis under state and federal law. By modeling this relationship, this project will contribute to more informed water management, leading to fewer litigation risks for agencies and better outcomes for sturgeon.
This project will model the effects of flow regimes on adult Southern Distinct Population Segment (sDPS) green sturgeon migration within the Sacramento River basin to enhance sturgeon conservation and water management. Specifically, the research will model how flows and temperature affect adult green sturgeon spawning migration. The model will be used to forecast sturgeon movements under various flow scenarios, and the model, the results, and an explanation of their significance will be widely distributed via a website (with a publicly accessible modeling app), a policy brief, a public workshop, and other outreach.
The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) is experiencing an increase in the frequency and severity of Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms (CHABs), which can produce harmful cyanotoxins. This issue is likely to intensify due to climate changes and rising temperatures. The most common CHAB genus in the Delta is Microcystis. Currently, the most extensive dataset for tracking Delta CHABs is the Microcystis Visual Index (MVI), a qualitative assessment of Microcystis colony densities observed in surface water. This index, recorded by natural agency staff across numerous monitoring stations, provides broad spatial coverage but is inherently subjective and not quantitative, thereby limiting its utility.
This project has the following objectives: 1. Develop an MVI image classification model and model algorithm that can identify and quantify Microcystis aggregate presence and coverage level in digital photos. 2. Translate MVI rankings to Microcystis biomass ranges by obtaining data to ground-truth a range of Microcystis biomass that corresponds with MVI rankings 2 through 5. 3. Explore relationship between proportion of toxic Microcystis cells and Microcystis biomass levels by relating each MVI scale (for ranks 2 through 5) and Microcystis biomass range to a) proportion of toxic Microcystis cells (i.e. ratio of mcyE and 16S rDNA genes) and b) microcystin concentration, in surface grab samples.
As source areas of snowmelt, Sierra Nevada headwater streams are the origin of water that feeds the Delta, but their response to climate change is not well understood. By utilizing long-term data and modeling future responses, we build a tool to reduce scientific uncertainty about Delta water supply and water quality in a changing climate. By incorporating indigenous cultural values, we create a fully integrated shared vison of the future of the Delta in a changing climate, including mapping which areas are most vulnerable and in need of conservation or restoration.
The project objectives are: 1. Utilize and expand on existing water quality and biological monitoring networks in Sierra Nevada headwaters streams to construct models of ecosystem dynamics with respect to climate induced stress impacts on benthic communities, water quality, and nutrients. 2. Construct an oral-history-derived framework of indigenous cultural values of Delta headwaters systems and how science and indigenous values can interact to improve management outcomes. 3. Utilize and expand on existing platforms for dissemination of forecasting tools and model outputs to water managers as well as both scientific and non-scientific communities in the Delta headwaters.
SacPAS serves to provide information integration services to the Central Valley Project Improvement Act and practitioners working on matters related to ESA-listed fishes. The web-based services relate fish passage to environmental conditions and provide resources for evaluating the effects of river management and environmental conditions on salmon passage and survival.
The work performed as part of this agreement includes developing, maintaining, and making accessible query tools and decision support tools to access: historical, real-time and forecasted data; data summaries and visualizations; and hindcasts, forecasts, and scenario-derived predictions from statistical and mechanistic models. More specifically, the objectives are to:
1) Maintain and extend a secondary data repository of historical, real-time, and forecasted fish, environmental, and operational data from the Sacramento River and other river systems in the Central Valley, integrated from primary, public databases.
2) Maintain and improve the data query and visualization tools and services provided through the SacPAS website (https://www.cbr.washington.edu/sacramento/) for historical, real-time, and forecasted environmental and fish data.
3) Conduct research and provide access to modeling tools for fish survival and migration, through the SacPAS website, in support of Reclamation-funded and ESA-mandated activities, especially in efforts to predict, track, and evaluate the efficacy of proposed or actual actions.
