The Delta is a critical area for sustainable water management, facing significant challenges due to climate change. One of these challenges is in understanding and mitigating maladaptation – climate-aligned actions that may increase vulnerabilities or reduce adaptive capacity. Given the uncertainties surrounding climate change, management actions that seek to achieve high-level goals of climate change adaptation while accounting for maladaptation must be robust, ensuring adequate, multicriteria performance across all climate futures. This work responds to two gaps: (1) the absence of tools for assessing the performance of management actions in the Delta under hydroclimatic uncertainty and (2) a lack of research that explores how stakeholders can account for maladaptation in water governance. Among Delta stakeholders and researchers alike, the discourse and science surrounding ecological flow guidelines, the social complexities of water governance, and the use of integrated climate models to inform robust and adaptive decisions is active and rapidly advancing. This positions the Delta not only as an ideal case study for the academic study of maladaptation, but also as one that is of immediate relevance to stakeholders, responding to several Delta Management Needs (Science Actions 3B, 6E, and 1A) as they concern open science and the exploration of the Delta as a socioecological system and the facilitation of decision-making under climate change and its associated uncertainties.
As source areas of snowmelt, Sierra Nevada headwater streams are the origin of water that feeds the Delta, but their response to climate change is not well understood. By utilizing long-term data and modeling future responses, we build a tool to reduce scientific uncertainty about Delta water supply and water quality in a changing climate. By incorporating indigenous cultural values, we create a fully integrated shared vison of the future of the Delta in a changing climate, including mapping which areas are most vulnerable and in need of conservation or restoration.
The project objectives are: 1. Utilize and expand on existing water quality and biological monitoring networks in Sierra Nevada headwaters streams to construct models of ecosystem dynamics with respect to climate induced stress impacts on benthic communities, water quality, and nutrients. 2. Construct an oral-history-derived framework of indigenous cultural values of Delta headwaters systems and how science and indigenous values can interact to improve management outcomes. 3. Utilize and expand on existing platforms for dissemination of forecasting tools and model outputs to water managers as well as both scientific and non-scientific communities in the Delta headwaters.
