The proposed project is driven by the need to understand how land use has changed historically in California's Central Valley due to various drivers including environmental changes and socio-economic developments. Given the region's dependency on agriculture and its vulnerability to climate change—marked by shifts in precipitation patterns and water availability—it's crucial to model these dynamics accurately to forecast future conditions and plan effectively. Using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) provides a sophisticated means to dissect past interactions between land use and environmental factors at a granular level. This historical understanding is pivotal as it sets the stage for projecting future scenarios. Additionally, the integration of future hydrology data generated from the CalSim3 model and socio-economic scenarios allows for a comprehensive analysis of potential future states. This analysis aims to explore strategic land use modifications that can meet future socio-economic goals under varying water availability scenarios.
This research supports several key science actions, making it highly relevant to current policy discussions. It provides actionable insights into large-scale experiments (Science Action 1C), assesses the impact of climate on ecosystems (Science Action 6A), and explores water allocation strategies (Science Action 6E), thereby equipping policymakers and stakeholders with the necessary tools for informed decision-making. These decisions are crucial for maintaining ecological flows and ensuring the longterm viability of both the agricultural sector and the natural ecosystems upon which they depend.
The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is a highly altered and impaired ecosystem that is critical to the freshwater infrastructure of the State of California. Salt intrusion from San Francisco Bay into the Delta, however, threatens freshwater delivery to the southern portions of the state and so management and restoration actions within the Bay-Delta must continuously balance both ecosystem and operational needs. While previous numerical modeling studies have sought to examine changes in the estuarine physics of the system, these tools are costly to develop and run. Thus there is a need to develop alternate methods for monitoring the movement of water through the Bay-Delta, as proposed here. The proposed research project approaches tracking the mixing between the Bay and Delta waters through the novel use of daily satellite color imagery. These findings will be linked to in situ measurements throughout the system and used to inform relevant agencies of flow characteristics within the waterways. This work is motivated by a need for high frequency monitoring of finescale features within the dynamic Bay-Delta ecosystem and to take advantage of new advanced remote sensing technology to inform on long-term trends within the Delta.
The primary objectives of this research are to: 1. Enhance monitoring programs to inform management in the presence of climate change and additional stressors, 2. Inform on ecosystem resilience to interannual hydrologic variations and climate change impacts, and 3. Evaluate how climate change and flow regime changes will impact water quality in the Delta.
Invasive submerged aquatic species (SAV) greatly impact habitat for endangered species in the Delta. In the past decade, we have seen a huge increase in SAV cover and an influx of new invasive species like ribbonweed. This study will build species distribution models (SDM) for SAV using predictors such as water speed, depth, salinity from the UnTRIM hydrodynamic model, turbidity derived from Sentinel-2 and temperature derived from ECOSTRESS satellite imagery. The SDMs will be used to study the effect of flow management actions and restoration activities on SAV distribution. SAV community data collected in the field (available on EDI) will be analyzed to study if the SAV community composition has changed from 2007-08 to present time. The same dataset will be used to explore if the SAV SDM can be refined based on species presence data to see if there are significant differences in SDMs of individual SAV species.
Invasive aquatic vegetation has been identified as a major concern in the IEP Science Strategy document and a topic meriting more study. Assessing the effects of flow alteration management actions on the Delta is also a recommended key topic of research. This study furthers both these objectives. It complements ongoing projects such as the water primrose ecoengineering project (PEN #348), which is similarly building an SDM for Ludwigia spp., determining plant characteristics that enable Ludwigia invasion and mapping invasion risk for the remnant Delta marshes. The work also builds off the conclusions of the Sentinel project which mapped the temporal phenological signal of SAV in the Delta. The results of this study will help design restorations to be more resistant to invasion, plan for climate change impacts, and predict invasion risk in Delta regions that are being reconnected tidally to the Delta waterways network through current and future restoration projects.
